Baxter County vs. Arkansas Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Baxter County: 2022 Population = 42,435 2022 Percent of State = 1.39% Arkansas: 2022 Population = 3,045,637 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.91% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Baxter County with comparisons to Arkansas and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Baxter County vs. Arkansas' population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Baxter County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Baxter County's population rose from 14,798 in 1969 to 42,435 in 2022, for a net gain of 27,637, or 186.76%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Arkansas' annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Arkansas' population rose from 1,913,000 in 1969 to 3,045,637 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,132,637, or 59.21%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Baxter County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Arkansas, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Baxter County's overall population growth was 186.76% over 1969-2022 outpaced Arkansas' increase of 59.21%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Arkansas Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Baxter County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Arkansas' statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Arkansas' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Baxter County's population totaled 0.77% of Arkansas' population, while in 2022 it comprised 1.39% thereby yielding a +0.62% share-shift.
Baxter County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Baxter County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Baxter County's population grew at an annual rate of 2.04% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1972 (9.54%) and posted its lowest growth in 2012 (-0.77%). In 2022, Baxter County's population grew by 0.63% Baxter County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Baxter County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Baxter County's annual population growth rate averaged 6.27%. It averaged 1.34% throughout the 1980s, 2.10% throughout the 1990s, 0.89% throughout the 2000s, -0.03% in the 2010s, 0.79% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Baxter County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Arkansas and the nation. As the chart reveals, Baxter County's average annual population growth outgained Arkansas' average during the 1970s (6.27% vs. 1.72%), exceeded Arkansas' average throughout the 1980s (1.34% vs. 0.34%), surpassed Arkansas' average in the 1990s (2.10% vs. 1.23%), outgained Arkansas' average during the 2000s (0.89% vs. 0.89%), recorded under Arkansas' average in the 2010s (-0.03% vs. 0.36%), and exceeded Arkansas' average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.79% vs. 0.46%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Baxter County led the nation throughout the 1970s (6.27% vs. 1.10%), outperformed the nation in the 1980s (1.34% vs. 0.95%), surpassed the nation over the 1990s (2.10% vs. 1.23%), lagged the nation during the 2000s (0.89% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 2010s (-0.03% vs. 0.74%), and outpaced the nation over 2020-2022 (0.79% vs. 0.31%).
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