Marion County vs. Arkansas Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Marion County: 2022 Population = 17,254 2022 Percent of State = 0.57% Arkansas: 2022 Population = 3,045,637 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.91% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Marion County with comparisons to Arkansas and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Marion County vs. Arkansas' population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Marion County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Marion County's population rose from 6,922 in 1969 to 17,254 in 2022, for a net gain of 10,332, or 149.26%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Arkansas' annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Arkansas' population rose from 1,913,000 in 1969 to 3,045,637 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,132,637, or 59.21%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Marion County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Arkansas, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Marion County's overall population growth was 149.26% over 1969-2022 outpaced Arkansas' increase of 59.21%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Arkansas Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Marion County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Arkansas' statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Arkansas' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Marion County's population totaled 0.36% of Arkansas' population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.57% thereby yielding a +0.20% share-shift.
Marion County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Marion County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Marion County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.76% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1977 (8.23%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-1.62%). In 2022, Marion County's population grew by 1.67% Marion County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Marion County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Marion County's annual population growth rate averaged 5.11%. It averaged 0.59% throughout the 1980s, 2.85% in the 1990s, 0.48% throughout the 2000s, -0.01% throughout the 2010s, 1.08% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Marion County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Arkansas and the nation. As the chart reveals, Marion County's average annual population growth outperformed Arkansas' average in the 1970s (5.11% vs. 1.72%), led Arkansas' average throughout the 1980s (0.59% vs. 0.34%), exceeded Arkansas' average during the 1990s (2.85% vs. 1.23%), fell below Arkansas' average during the 2000s (0.48% vs. 0.89%), posted below Arkansas' average throughout the 2010s (-0.01% vs. 0.36%), and surpassed Arkansas' average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (1.08% vs. 0.46%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Marion County led the nation in the 1970s (5.11% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation in the 1980s (0.59% vs. 0.95%), surpassed the nation in the 1990s (2.85% vs. 1.23%), recorded underneath the nation over the 2000s (0.48% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation throughout the 2010s (-0.01% vs. 0.74%), and exceeded the nation over 2020-2022 (1.08% vs. 0.31%).
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