Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Earnings Growth
Across Arkansas Counties
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Arkansas:
2010-2022 = 2.56%
2022 = 3.97%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real state government earnings growth across all of Arkansas' 75 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Arkansas Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real state government earnings growth of Arkansas' 75 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Arkansas:
2010-2022 = 2.56%
2022 = 3.97%
This figure displays the 75 counties of Arkansas as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real state government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real state government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real state government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.56%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.56% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.56%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 17 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 52 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 48 counties whose most recent (2022) real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.97%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 21 counties whose real state government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 75 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.56% over 2010-2022 and 3.97% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.56%) and near-term (3.97%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.56%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Arkansas average (3.97%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.56%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.97%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.56%) and near-term (3.97%).
   
 
Summary of Arkansas' 75 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.97%)
Above
(3.97%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.56%)
6
11
17
Below
(2.56%)
15
37
52
 
21
48
69
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Arkansas:
2010-2022 = 2.56%
2022 = 3.97%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Arkansas counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Arkansas' average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.56%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.97%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Arkansas' 75 counties, just 11 (15%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Arkansas:
2010-2022 = 2.56%
2022 = 3.97%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 6 Arkansas counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.56%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 3.97%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 6 (8%) of Arkansas' 75 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Arkansas:
2010-2022 = 2.56%
2022 = 3.97%
This figure shows the distribution of the 37 Arkansas counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.56%), while they outpaced Arkansas' average near-term (2022 = 3.97%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Arkansas' 75 counties, 49% (37) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Arkansas:
2010-2022 = 2.56%
2022 = 3.97%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 15 Arkansas counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.56%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.97%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
20% of Arkansas' counties, 15 of 75, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Arkansas
Real* State Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
4
4.27
 
38
6.06
17,628
 
6
3.67
 
41
5.78
6,112
 
5
4.02
 
49
4.16
51,602
 
10
2.99
 
22
6.59
8,311
 
2
4.88
 
4
15.01
50,391
 
14
2.70
 
11
7.20
45,803
 
8
3.47
 
1
21.49
4,698
 
3
4.83
 
7
8.25
10,354
 
15
2.67
 
17
6.76
2,512
 
11
2.92
 
24
6.51
2,126
 
1
5.02
 
6
8.51
750,876
Slipping Counties
 
13
2.74
 
70
-1.74
222,712
 
7
3.67
 
68
-0.25
9,070
 
9
3.13
 
55
3.56
37,338
 
16
2.64
 
69
-1.09
106,378
 
17
2.61
 
52
3.80
2,489,530
 
12
2.88
 
71
-2.56
11,348
Gaining Counties
 
38
1.51
 
8
7.69
9,863
 
67
-0.83
 
43
5.55
6,640
 
28
2.06
 
42
5.61
18,911
 
24
2.30
 
33
6.25
5,675
 
53
0.69
 
39
5.98
13,280
 
29
2.03
 
14
7.03
2,739
 
19
2.53
 
46
4.97
21,654
 
54
0.47
 
19
6.68
1,916
 
44
1.07
 
5
9.03
6,411
 
41
1.25
 
44
5.49
40,858
 
52
0.71
 
16
6.81
3,465
 
20
2.40
 
13
7.08
2,647
 
26
2.20
 
48
4.48
43,465
 
25
2.29
 
2
17.12
5,794
 
37
1.52
 
50
4.16
25,129
 
51
0.76
 
28
6.38
6,868
 
49
0.86
 
20
6.66
4,146
 
33
1.81
 
34
6.25
52,876
 
42
1.14
 
40
5.96
21,758
 
60
0.06
 
25
6.46
2,456
 
61
-0.05
 
29
6.38
4,320
 
46
0.93
 
12
7.11
2,048
 
57
0.16
 
18
6.70
2,897
 
59
0.07
 
26
6.41
21,473
 
31
1.96
 
36
6.16
4,483
 
48
0.88
 
9
7.56
6,449
 
18
2.55
 
51
4.14
16,210
 
65
-0.60
 
45
5.35
23,570
 
55
0.40
 
37
6.07
44,670
 
62
-0.15
 
27
6.40
2,011
 
69
-1.29
 
30
6.35
2,444
 
64
-0.46
 
35
6.24
3,031
 
43
1.08
 
47
4.75
5,119
 
23
2.34
 
3
15.77
36,230
 
68
-0.92
 
23
6.53
2,544
 
39
1.27
 
21
6.63
1,978
 
56
0.35
 
32
6.28
3,807
Lagging Counties
 
22
2.37
 
53
3.66
63,556
 
40
1.25
 
61
2.36
47,018
 
66
-0.80
 
72
-21.83
46,523
 
47
0.90
 
64
2.15
22,931
 
34
1.72
 
62
2.35
20,489
 
27
2.09
 
59
2.65
226,142
 
58
0.14
 
65
2.05
53,405
 
30
2.00
 
58
2.74
25,639
 
35
1.67
 
57
2.89
35,942
 
32
1.93
 
54
3.64
227,373
 
50
0.79
 
56
2.99
30,180
 
45
0.99
 
66
1.11
36,404
 
36
1.60
 
60
2.57
16,495
 
21
2.39
 
67
0.74
125,292
 
63
-0.26
 
63
2.15
31,761
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
31
6.31
4,618
 
U
U
 
15
6.94
1,973
 
U
U
 
S
S
1,927
 
U
U
 
S
S
21,727
 
U
U
 
10
7.25
2,130
 
U
U
 
S
S
1,772
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.56
 
3.97
5,349,921
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.81
 
2.68
477,522,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620310_LSGL
 
   
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